Argentina after ARA San Juan

By M.B. Gambarotta

The disappearance of the submarine ARA San Juan on November 15 in the South Atlantic is not a political story. Yet it has left Argentine public opinion in shock. The 44 crew members are feared dead.

President Mauricio Macri on Friday (November 24) addressed the case for the first time officially. Macri had met with relatives in the naval base in Mar del Plata. Footage of that meeting surfaced. But the president had not made a formal public statement about the Argentine Navy submarine.

That changed on Friday (November 25). Macri was shuttled to Navy headquarters in Buenos Aires on the presidential helicopter. Once there the president addressed the issue flanked by Defence Minister Oscar Aguad and the navy chief.

Macri said in a brief statement that the search continues. He thanked the international communtity for its support in the search. Now, said Macri, is not the time to say who is responsible for the situation. The submarine which underwent a major overhaul in 2014 was in working order, according to the president.

That comment could have been a bid to quash the political controversy surrounding the ARA San Juan. The German-made submarine dating back to the 80s was repaired during the administration of leftist president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. But Macri on Friday steered clear of blaming the Kirchnerite administration as fierce political confrontations about responsibilities surrounding the submarine continued in the press and social media.

Macri looked pale and rattled and only made a brief statement without taking any questions. The president’s comments show that the government has realized that the case can no longer be handled by Navy spokesmen.

On Friday even the afternoon gossip shows on television, which are more used to delving the love life of starlets, were voicing angst and outrage and calling for the Defence minister’s resignation. Aguad is a member of the conservative wing of the Radical party, which is part of the president’s centre-right coalition Cambiemos. Macri on taking office appointed Aguad to lead the communications portfolio. Aguad has since been named Defence minister. He has no experience in telecommunications or defence.

Aguad is not expected to be sacked right now. But the ARA San Juan has left the Macri administration exposed to criticism in a nation where the mood has suddenly turned extremely glum.

Macri’s coalition won the midterm election on October 22 with 41 percent of the vote nationwide. It had the political momentum by winning in the country’s five major districts and defeating former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Buenos Aires province, her bastion.

After the impressive election win the president announced a series of tax, labour and pension reforms that have to be approved by Congress, which is not controlled by the ruling coalition even after that election win.

Now suddenly Macri has to scramble to offer public opinion an explanation about the missing Navy submarine and the fate of 44 Argentine crew members. Relatives of the crew were in pain after the Navy confirmed that it had reports showing that an explosion took place on November 15 in the South Atlantic.

Lawmaker Elisa Carrió, a key member of Macri’s coalition, said on Saturday night (November 26) live on television that the 44 crew members were most likely “dead.” Carrió said she was uttering what the Macri administration “can’t say” without first effectively finding the submarine.

Carrió’s television appearance was another sign that the national government is scrambling to deal with a series of gaffes surrounding the ARA San Juan. At one point early on in the search Aguad tweeted that seven brief attempts at digital telephone calls most likely came from the submarine in distress and that there was hope. The calls did not come from the submarine, it was later confirmed.

On Saturday (November 26) relatives of the missing crew were complaining that their salary bank accounts had been frozen and they could not collect any money. The Navy promised to sort out the problem.

The problem for Argentina, and the government, is that public opinion could once again come to the conclusion, with the submarine still missing, that its politicians, including those in Macri’s coalition, are all an incredibly inept and corrupt bunch that should be kicked out.

In a nutshell: Macri, who still enjoys high popularity ratings, is now dealing with a severe public opinion crisis and must do everything that he can to protect the credibility of his government.

If there is a credibility crisis it has come when Macri was trying to negotiate the approval of key market-friendly reforms in Congress, where the splintered Peronists till have considerable clout — even when in disarray after that election defeat in October.

Now a watered-down labour reform bill, which purportedly has been backed by the General Labour Confederation (CGT), has been bogged down in the Senate where the Peronists are in control. The Peronist caucus wanted the CGT leaders to attend a hearing to voice their backing for Macri’s labour reform before approving it. Yet two of the three CGT secretary generals instead chose to attend a conference at the Vatican hosted by Argentine-born Pope Francis. The third member of the CGT troika also skipped the Senate meeting.

Here’s the news: approval of the labour reform has been delayed. The reform is opposed, predictably, by unions still loyal to Fernández de Kirchner. Now hose unions have now joined forces with the powerful teamsters union headed by Hugo Moyano and his son Pablo Moyano. The Moyanos turned on Fernández de Kirchner in 2011 when she refused to give in to their political demands. But now Pablo Moyano has declared that his union will take part in anti-labour reform demonstrations along with the Kirchnerite trade unions, which are headed by the boss of the bank clerks’ union.

Fernández de Kirchner, who was defeated by Macri’s coalition in Buenos Aires province, is still scheduled to take a Senate seat representing the minority on Wednesday (November 29). An anti-labour reform demonstration has been called for that day outside Congress.

There was further controversy when the Moyano family denied comments by Labour Minister Jorge Triaca that they had taken part in negotiations. Triaca had said that another one of Moyano’s son, a lawyer, had participated in drafting the government-sponsored labour reform bill. Moyano’s camp has denied this.

The reform is not drastic, but the national government had hoped that it would open to door to more significant changes sector-by-sector.

There is also controversy surrounding the pension reform. The Macri administration’s aim is to do away with a Kirchnerite-era system of two annual automatic increases that usually overtake inflation. Under the new system increases would be tied to inflation along with a small bonus pegged to annual economic growth. The national government’s aim is to save 100 billion pesos a year. But the newspapers are already full of stories reporting that effectively the change would mean that the first automatic increase next year will go down from 12 percent to 5 percent.

Will the pensioners feel short-changed? There’s also fears that the pension reform will prompt a new wave of lawsuits.

Macri’s election win was convincing. But suddenly volatility had returned.

Public opinion was also shocked by the disappearance of Santiago Maldonado, a 28 year-old backpacker and activist, during a Mapuche indian demonstration cracked down by Border Guards in Patagonia on August 1.

An autopsy concluded on Friday (November 24) that Maldonado drowned in the freezing cold waters of the Chubut River where his body was found on October 17 — only days ahead of the midterm elections held on October 22.

The autopsy, to quote Judge Gustavo Lleral, showed that there were “no lesions” on Maldonado’s body — meaning that there is no evidence that the Border Guard used any direct force against him. Yet Maldonado’s family still hold the Border Guard and Macri’s security portfolio responsible for his death underlining that it happened in the context of a confrontation with federal forces.

The conflict in Patagonia has not gone away. Reports on Saturday night (November 25) said that at least one Mapuche indian demonstrator had been shot dead in clashes, near the Patagonian city of Bariloche, with a special Coast Guard unit, Albatros. The Coast Guard said that Mapuche indian demonstrators occupying territory had opened fire with handguns against them and they had not choice but retaliate with live ammunition. Unconfirmed reports said that two other demonstrators had also been shot dead by security forces.

The killing (or killings) could prompt another crisis in Patagonia. Rioting broke out in Bariloche Argentina has seen a lot of turmoil since the return of democracy in 1983. But armed demonstrators opening fire with guns against federal troops are almost unheard of. The Coast Guard will have to back up its claim that it was ambushed by gun-packing Mapuches.

The clashes coincided with Maldonado’s funeral in 25 de Mayo, his home town in Buenos Aires province on Saturday. The story about armed clashes in Patagonia that left at least one demonstrator dead broke on Saturday night (November 26) as this article was being written — it is a developing story that will bring unpredictable consequences. It could deepen a credibility crisis that could end up hitting most of Argentina’s ruling elite.

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